← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 41% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 605.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1457.15 | 1513.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.91 | 7.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |