← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 40% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 29% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1461.02 | 1494.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.48 | 31.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |