← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira Mar win | 49% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Setubal win | 23% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1447.02 | 1400.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.46 | -28.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.74 |
| state index | -0.99 | -1.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |