← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 66% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +11% |
| Academica win | 12% | 11% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 969.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1432.38 | 1804.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.39 | -3.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| league points | 20.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.53 |
| state index | -1.27 | 1.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |