← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 75% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 4.80 | fair |
| Setubal win | 8% | 8% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1403.16 | 1882.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.92 | -26.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| league points | 14.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 2.39 |
| state index | -1.30 | 1.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |