← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 38% | 46% | 2.50 | value: +14% |
| Olhanense win | 32% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1449.17 | 1459.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.19 | -0.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| league points | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |