← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Mon, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 45% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1460.51 | 1489.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.25 | 8.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |