← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 44% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Feirense win | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 591.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1448.09 | 1462.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.16 | -17.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |