← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 40% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1502.57 | 1497.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.93 | -3.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |