← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 38% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 32% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1455.65 | 1547.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.07 | 25.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |