← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 45% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 26% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1559.86 | 1660.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.59 | -5.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.88 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |