← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 79% | 85% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 7% | 5% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 955.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1816.38 | 1505.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.14 | 16.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| league points | 45.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 1.12 |
| state index | 1.90 | 0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |