← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 77% | 87% | 1.22 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 16% | 9% | 6.00 | fair |
| Setubal win | 7% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 224.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1690.09 | 1407.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.47 | -18.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 37.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 0.82 |
| state index | 1.24 | -1.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |