← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Mon, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 43% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1568.34 | 1681.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.60 | 31.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 2.13 |
| state index | 0.38 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |