← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 36% | 42% | 2.60 | value: +9% |
| Olhanense win | 34% | 28% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1417.73 | 1467.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.14 | -18.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |