← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 43% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1421.18 | 1430.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.79 | -22.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |