← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 82% | 1.30 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 19% | 12% | 5.00 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 9% | 6% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1462.91 | 1907.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.12 | 3.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| state index | -0.90 | 1.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |