← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 54% | 51% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
| Academica win | 18% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 317.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1482.48 | 1458.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.21 | -4.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 38.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.03 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |