← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 50% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 22% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1410.23 | 1510.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.94 | 7.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |