← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 54% | 64% | 1.75 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.75 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 20% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1525.88 | 1899.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.65 | 7.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| league points | 35.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.79 |
| state index | 0.08 | 1.87 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |