← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 72% | 81% | 1.29 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.00 | fair |
| Leiria win | 9% | 5% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 682.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1771.16 | 1426.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.56 | -26.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| league points | 62.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |