← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 65% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
| Setubal win | 13% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1638.30 | 1412.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.56 | 18.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| league points | 45.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |