← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 36% | 31% | 2.60 | fair |
| Leiria win | 34% | 36% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1417.79 | 1418.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.10 | 22.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 31.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.82 |
| state index | -1.32 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |