← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 50% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1503.14 | 1471.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.03 | -2.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 37.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |