← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 57% | 84% | 1.67 | value: +40% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 7% | 3.75 | fair |
| Setubal win | 18% | 9% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1444.77 | 1939.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.68 | 17.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| league points | 28.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.85 |
| state index | 0.09 | 2.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |