← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 54% | 66% | 1.73 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 19% | 12% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 669.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1444.32 | 1772.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -55.40 | -24.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 29.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.15 |
| state index | -1.46 | 0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |