← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 37% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +6% |
| Vitória SC win | 32% | 27% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 302.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1463.90 | 1512.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.77 | -6.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| state index | -1.18 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |