← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Mon, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 39% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 48.00 | 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1522.40 | 1663.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.83 | 42.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 35.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.65 |
| state index | 0.07 | 1.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |