← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 47% | 57% | 2.00 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 19% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1496.72 | 1434.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.91 | 27.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |