← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 39% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +4% |
| Leiria win | 29% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1395.48 | 1438.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.53 | -17.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 24.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |