← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 63% | 89% | 1.50 | value: +34% ⚠ |
| Draw | 22% | 5% | 4.33 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 14% | 6% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1426.10 | 1901.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.37 | 21.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| league points | 19.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 2.84 |
| state index | -0.09 | 2.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |