← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 40% | 43% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 283.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1486.89 | 1472.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.56 | 31.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |