← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 54% | 64% | 1.80 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Naval win | 20% | 16% | 4.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1416.95 | 1787.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.28 | -20.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 20.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.26 | 1.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |