Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1–2 FC Porto

← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win	38%	44%	2.40	value: +5%
FC Porto win	32%	28%	2.90	fair
Draw	30%	28%	3.25	fair

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	FC Porto
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.00	0.05
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	641.00	276.00
comeback rate (last 20)	0.00	0.05
congestion 21d	2.00	2.00
elo	1796.72	1892.41
elo momentum (last 5)	0.09	20.58
form points (last 5)	10.00	15.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	1.20	2.20
goals against avg (last 5)	1.00	0.20
goals for avg (last 5)	2.20	2.40
goals volatility (last 10)	1.35	0.97
h2 goals (last 10)	1.30	1.50
h2h win rate (last 5)	0.40	0.60
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.65	0.75
league points	55.00	68.00
league rank	2.00	1.00
matches since blank	14.00	20.00
matches since clean sheet	4.00	1.00
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	12.96	13.96
season ppg	2.29	2.83
state index	1.40	2.11
venue ppg (last 5)	2.60	3.00