← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 46% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 25% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1462.79 | 1433.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.73 | 36.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.79 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |