← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 35% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Leiria win | 34% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1453.09 | 1533.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.25 | 22.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 11.96 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |