← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Mon, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 57% | 66% | 1.65 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 17% | 12% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 263.00 | 628.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1502.72 | 1788.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.66 | -2.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| league points | 33.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.26 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |