← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 35% | 38% | 2.62 | fair |
| Setubal win | 34% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1393.62 | 1524.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.30 | -4.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 21.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |