← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 80% | 91% | 1.18 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 14% | 7% | 7.50 | fair |
| Academica win | 6% | 2% | 16.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 262.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1890.69 | 1464.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.85 | -5.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| league points | 65.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.83 | 1.09 |
| state index | 2.07 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |