← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 41% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1395.77 | 1473.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.77 | -14.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 16.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |