← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 59% | 70% | 1.57 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 18% | 3.60 | fair |
| Leiria win | 14% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1638.86 | 1446.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.88 | -5.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 37.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |