← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Fri, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 41% | 34% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 38% | 3.10 | value: +17% |
| Portimonense win | 28% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1436.49 | 1544.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.76 | -24.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 16.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |