← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Mon, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 68% | 87% | 1.36 | value: +18% ⚠ |
| Draw | 21% | 6% | 4.50 | fair |
| Leiria win | 11% | 7% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1449.96 | 1887.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.38 | 20.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| league points | 29.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.82 |
| state index | -0.69 | 2.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |