← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 38% | 41% | 2.50 | value: +4% |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1411.70 | 1503.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.40 | -25.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |