← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 52% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Academica win | 21% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 12.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1527.61 | 1461.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.57 | -10.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.09 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |