← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 86% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 5% | 4% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 620.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1797.25 | 1414.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.44 | -5.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| league points | 51.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 0.68 |
| state index | 1.49 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |