← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 57% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Setubal win | 16% | 14% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1519.16 | 1388.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.09 | -7.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 32.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.45 | -1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |