← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 63% | 75% | 1.50 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 24% | 17% | 4.20 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 13% | 8% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1638.04 | 1463.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.59 | -27.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |