← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 73% | 85% | 1.29 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 18% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 9% | 5% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 247.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1885.21 | 1521.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.44 | -9.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.85 | 0.25 |
| league points | 59.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.81 | 1.52 |
| state index | 2.06 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |