← Primeira Liga 2010-11 · Mon, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 45% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1402.67 | 1625.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.58 | -11.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 14.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |